Introduction, Survey of Electors Following the March 4, 2024, Federal By-election in the Electoral District of Durham (ON)

Background and Objectives

Elections Canada (EC) is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament. The agency's mandate is to conduct federal general elections, by-elections and referendums; administer the political financing provisions of the Canada Elections Act; monitor compliance; and enforce electoral legislation.

As part of its evaluation program, the agency wanted to conduct a survey of eligible electors following the federal by-election held on March 4, 2024, in the riding of Durham, Ontario. The purpose of conducting this survey following the by-election was to obtain reliable survey data to evaluate electors' opinions about, attitudes toward and knowledge of the agency's services and various aspects of their experience.

The objective of this survey was to evaluate electors':

awareness of the by-election and different aspects of the voting process
sources of information about the by-election
impressions of different voting methods
experiences with communications from EC
experiences with voting in the by-election
attitudes toward EC and the election results

The results will be used to assist in evaluating and refining Elections Canada’s programs and services to the electorate. They may also be used to help in developing the Chief Electoral Officer’s reports to Parliament.

Methodology

A telephone survey was conducted with 402 eligible electors in the Durham, Ontario, federal electoral district. Eligible electors were Canadian citizens, at least 18 years of age on polling day, who were residents of the electoral district from the first day of the by-election period until election day. A pre-test was conducted on March 5, 2024. There were no changes to the questionnaire; data collection resumed on March 6, 2024, and continued through March 19, 2024.

An overlapping dual-frame (wireless and landline) sample was used to minimize coverage error. Those who declined to participate in the survey when contacted by telephone were offered the option of completing the survey through an online self-administered questionnaire. Three electors opted to complete the survey online; the rest completed it over the telephone. The option to complete the survey in French was also provided, though no respondents selected the option.

The survey data was weighted to accurately reflect the age and gender distribution of eligible electors. Based on a sample of this size, the overall results would have a maximum margin of error of ±4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The maximum margins of error would be greater for results pertaining to subgroups of the total sample.

Notes to Reader

The survey research relies on self-reported voter turnout, which is often over-reported in public opinion surveys. In this survey, self-reported turnout was 67.1%, while the actual turnout rate for the March 4, 2024, by-election was 27.9%. A limitation of this research, therefore, is that it overrepresents voters in the survey sample. Two factors may be responsible for the overrepresentation of voters: 1) people who vote may be more likely than non-voters to participate in a study about voting (response bias), and 2) people who did not vote may report that they voted to present themselves in a more positive light (social desirability bias).
For editorial purposes, the terms "electors" and "respondents" are used interchangeably to denote survey participants. The term "voters" denotes survey participants who reported having voted.
All results in the report are expressed as percentages, unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not always add up to 100% due to rounding or multiple mentions.
Percentages in the report are rounded to the nearest full percentage. When a total is presented in the report (e.g. two percentages are added together, such as "somewhat satisfied" plus "very satisfied"), it has been calculated based on unrounded percentages. As a result, rounded percentages, at times, do not sum to the unrounded total percentage.
The number of respondents per question changes throughout the report because questions were often asked of a sub-sample of respondents. Accordingly, readers should be aware of this and exercise caution when interpreting results based on smaller numbers of respondents.
Subgroup differences are identified in the report where applicable. When reporting variations, only differences that are significant at the 95% confidence level and that pertain to a subgroup sample size of n=30 or greater are discussed in the report.
- When subgroup differences are reported, one category within a subgroup is being compared to one or more other categories within the same subgroup, often using the following syntax: "more likely" or "less likely." For example, "Group A was more likely than Group B to ..." or "Group A is less likely than Group B to ...."
- If one or more categories in a subgroup are not mentioned in a discussion of subgroup differences, it can be assumed that significant differences were found only among the categories reported.
- If no subgroup differences are identified for a question, it can be assumed that there were no significant differences.