HIV/AIDS: Modelling and Projection

The Modelling and Projection Section, with the Surveillance and Risk Assessment Division, provides mathematical modelling, statistical analysis and operations research on a wide range of infectious diseases such as emerging respiratory infections (e.g. Pandemic influenza), HIV/AIDS, and sexually transmitted infections.

A significant proportion of its resources and services are directed to HIV/AIDS. They include advanced risk management techniques, statistics and modelling and projection practices designed to enhance the surveillance of HIV/AIDS in Canada.

Statisticians, mathematicians, operations research experts and epidemiologists provide statistical consulting and mathematical modelling services and conduct methodology development and research, such as:

• Statistical analyses to adjust for occurred but not yet reported cases of HIV/AIDS diagnoses;

• Develop new statistical models and methods for estimation of the trend of HIV incidence and prevalence in Canada; and

• The development of computer software in support of analysis, models and methods